Sunday, June 27, 2004

The October Surprise

I've been trying to puzzle out whether a staged terrorist attack in Mid-October would have a predictable political effect on the American electorate, and have decided it probably would not. It could break either way, folks might conclude that it's too dangerous to change teams, or they might decide that the failure was Bush*'s.

I think a staged thwarting of a 9/11-level attack much more likely. It would need to be spectacular, and fatal for all the "terrorists", and a little blood is always good for the cameras...

Try this on for size: A Liquified Petroleum or Propane tanker, hijacked by terriers and attempting to attack San Francisco, blown up well out in the harbor. There would be a huge photogenic explosion, probably the loss of several adjacent/nearby ships, with crews, and very possibly damage/casualties on shore, but it would be obvious that it would have been far worse had the terriers "succeeded" in crashing into the waterfront. The sacrifice of the Golden Gate Bridge might even be profitable. The loss of a SEAL team would give Bush* a "Hero Funeral" to officiate at just before the Election...

This seems to me to be far more predictable politically than the "small nuke in New Orleans"-type scenarios I have seen postulated various places, demonstrating vigilance and resolve on the Chimp's part. If the legend included the Patriot Act playing a ket role in "breaking the case", and maybe key information coming out of "interrogation" at Gitmo, it might well sweep Bush* to election and silence criticism of the more odious aspects of this Misadministration.

Of course, I could be wrong.

Upon Further Thought
they wouldn't even need fake hijackers. One planted Gitmo "detainee" suddenly giving information on a tanker off Lloyd's List, or even a translator claiming one did, would give enough excuse to dispatch a SEAL Team.

If dead heroes (so Bush* could preside over a funeral) are needed the hard decision could be made just before the Seals got there that the risk was too great, and a couple missiles put into the tanker. Sure as hell the crew won't be proclaiming their innocence, and with Smirky safely out of the way in Crawford Cheney could give all the orders.

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